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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season on fire.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a term - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in two seasons ago and ten in the previous campaign - it nevertheless places him three strikes clear in the initial race for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Certainly, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so soon in the campaign.

To begin with, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, equally significant, the total and standard of chances he is getting.

Secondly, the modest opening his typical competitors for the honor have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A player's expected goals number (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistical experts, but by English top-flight records.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the Premier League so far this campaign from open play, the Scandinavian attacker is receiving significantly more good opportunities to find the net than anyone else.

Actually, even if Haaland wasn't superior at scoring from situations than any other player in the competition, he would nevertheless have converted over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Opportunity Analysis

That is demonstrated by breaking down the number and quality of chances that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, a dozen more than all other attackers.

That is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had previously registered more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

However, what's unprecedented even for him is the quality of chances he has had this season. His shots have had an expected goals rating of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that footballers have traditionally scored the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to score on average - because of a couple of tap-ins against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG rating per shot he had at the start of last season.

In short, the chances he has had in 2025-26 have been notably easier to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Previous Season Assessment

Starting a season so strongly is, as previously stated, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had registered ten strikes - four more than any other player and six additional compared to Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Liverpool forward who claimed the top scorer award with 29 conversions, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Indeed this has been the quietest start to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It isn't only Salah who has begun modestly either. Upon reviewing at the highest eleven attackers in the English top division last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Be it because of physical problems - several key attackers - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their sides have underperformed (several proven attackers), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the Continental scoring award that is presented to the player with the most goals in Europe's premier competitions?

That race is far more competitive at this opening period because two elite attackers have also started in superb fashion, with 11 and nine goals each.

The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the top chance quality metric of the trio without yet taking any spot-kicks makes him the favourite.

But since the English and French stars are among the finest goal-scorers in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.